A Fortunate Taste

Below is a sample of the type of research and analysis that Yettobe Media provides clients.

A Fortunate Taste Spreadsheet Analysis (CLICK FOR GOOGLE SHEETS)

Yettobe Media (YM) was tasked with finding the total number of fortune cookies eaten in the US in 2022 and ultimately forecasting the average annual growth rate between 2022 and 2027. Several assumptions, statistics, and factors were utilized to estimate these figures.

Assumption 1: 2022 Estimated Total Gross Number of Fortune Cookies Produced Worldwide

Global production statistics were used as the foundation for the 2022 estimate. According to multiple sources (Source 1a and Source 1b), it’s estimated that around 3 billion fortune cookies are produced around the world each year. Of course, not every cookie created is actually consumed.

Assumption 2: 2022 Unadjusted US Fortune Cookie Consumption

The US is widely considered to be the top producer and consumer of fortune cookies.

  • For reference, the largest manufacturer of fortune cookies in the US produces an estimated 1.125 billion cookies per year.

Given this info and the abundance of Chinese and Chinese-adjacent restaurants in the US, YM estimates that the 2022 US market share (and total unadjusted cookie consumption rate) is likely close to 60% (1.8 billion total cookies) of the total global market.

Assumption 3: 2022 Adjusted US Fortune Cookie Consumption

The US population is no stranger to food waste. It’s estimated that between 30 and 40 percent of the US food supply is wasted. Thus, YM thinks it’s reasonable to assume that around 35% of the fortune cookies produced in the US are left uneaten and unconsumed. When accounting for a waste percentage, YM estimates that the 2022 Adjusted US Fortune Cookie Consumption Total is 1,170 million cookies. 

Assumption 4: Avg Expected % Change in Market Size and/or Share

In terms of market sentiment, YM estimates that the total number of restaurants that serve fortune cookies will increase in the next 5 years. Chinese food is the most popular ethnic food in the US. Suppose the market (and demand) for this type of food maintains its popularity. In that case, it’s likely more Chinese restaurants will open, especially as COVID-19 policies and restrictions wind down, and more cookies will be consumed accordingly.  

Assumption 5: Avg Expected % Change related to Consumer Spending Habits (Net Inflation)

Inflation is a threat to consumer spending power and therefore to fortune cookie sellers alike. While inflation will likely have a marginal influence on eating decisions (takeout vs dining at home), data still shows that US consumers will most likely continue to spend more at restaurants than at grocery stores. Thus, YM thinks the impact of inflation on fortune cookie consumption will be canceled out for a net zero growth factor.

Assumption 6: Researcher Conservatism Factor Adjustment

Finally, to account for potential error and projection uncertainty, YM’s model has a built-in Conservatism Factor Adjustment. This is included to smooth out uncertainty in YM’s assumptions. While currently set at a neutral rate, the growth rate can be adjusted based on the user’s sentiment and future outlook. The options range from a hyper-conservative adjustment of -1% to a hyper-aggressive adjustment of 1%.

Closing Statement

Yettobe Media (YM) estimates that the US consumed around 1,170 million fortune cookies in 2022. Accounting for factors such as historical market share, covid restriction easement, inflation, (and linear assumptions about growth rates) YM concludes that the average US consumption rate will grow by .5% annually between 2022 and 2027. YM’s model projects an estimated 1,200 million fortune cookies will be consumed by Americans in 2027.

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